American yield increases as a bond market ahead of parole

US unemployed claims increased in the latest week

US productivity is slow in Q4

US rate futures price in 46 bps of 46 bps in 2025

US 2/10 yield curve flattened from December 23

By Gartrud Chavez-Drafs

New York, – US Treasury yield is at high level on Thursday, recovered from a sharp decline in the previous season, as the bond market became slightly stable, the US temporarily postponed a disastrous trade war with Canada and Mexico.

However, the threat of tariff remains a concern with China’s import duties on American goods set to be effective on 10 February.

“The market is not only going to be data-dependent, but is also a policy-making,” said Vishal Khanduja, the portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Boston and head of Broad Markets, the head of Broad Markets. “At this time, the fiscal policy will also drive in the direction for quite instability and markets.”

In addition to tariffs, Khanduja expects news on fiscal deficit, taxes and deragulation, which also prevents the instability of the bond market.

In the afternoon trading, the US benchmark yield of 10-year increased by more than 1.8 base points to 4.438%.

The US 30 -year yield also reached 4.648%.

At the front end of the curve, the US two -year yield increased by 2.3 bps to 4.208%.

Market participants are now looking forward to the Friday’s nonform payroll report for January, in which the Reuters Pols forecast 170,000 new jobs, below 256,000 in December.

Friday’s report will also include the annual benchmark payroll modification and updated population control in the domestic survey. The initial estimate of the benchmark amendment showed an adjustment of 818,000 for cumulative payroll growth from April 2023 to March 2024. “This special chain … will provide reference to the effect of immigration and provide a thick road map. The phenomenon in this phenomenon is successful on parole that Trump is successful with its immigration agenda,” BMO Capital Markets in a research note.

Treasury showed very little response to Thursday’s economic figures, indicating an increase in American unemployed claims and an increase in the fourth quarter.

A report by the Labor Department stated that the initial claims for the state unemployment benefit for the week ended February 1 increased from 11,000 to 219,000. Economists voted by Reuters estimated 213,000 claims for the latest week.

Another piece of data showed that the increase in American functionality slowed down more than expected in the fourth quarter, increasing labor costs. Nonform productivity, to measure production per hour per worker, increased at 1.2% annual rate in the previous quarter after growing at a speed of 2.3% in the July-September quarter.

Post-Deta, US rate futures have given the price of reducing about 46 bps this year, or about two rates of 25 bps each. According to LSEG calculation, the percentage has been in 45% range for most of the week of the week. The Fed is expected to be caught for several policy meetings, but will probably resume the cutting rates again in June or July.

The US Yield curve, meanwhile, was flattened on the first Thursday, 20.6 BPS with spreading between two years and 10 years of yield, the most narrow difference since 23 December. The curve was at 23 BPS, which was slightly above 22.7 BPS on Wednesday.

The yield curves are usually in the middle of a sloping shape, with a slope shape, in the middle of an easy cycle. This bond remains a popular trade in the market.

But since the 42.60 BPS of May 2022 hit its most stable level in mid -January, the curve has been continuously flattened or declined.

Robert Tip, the main investment strategist and head of the global bond in PGIM fixed income in New York, said that the curve flattened, which meant that in the last two days, there is less long yields than those at the lower ends, which is less longer than those, who have been yielded for the last two days. Was due to part in. Announcement of return of Treasury.

Treasury announced on Wednesday that it would keep the auction size unchanged in notes and bonds through the April quarter, but would not provide guidance when it would increase them.

“Given that there is a fear of losses … follow-on fear is low to release the bill and release more long-term treasury,” TIPP said. “It was postponed. The markets were relieved that the Treasury is not doing … more duration on them.”

This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without amending the text.