Oil prices rose high on Wednesday, supported by a weak dollar, although a potential American economic recession and global trade tariff concern over the impact of limited gains. Emkay said that Crude oil Futures increased 13 cents, or 0.2 percent to 69.69 per barrel as 0730 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) raw futures also increased to 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, USD 66.38 per barrel. Despite economic uncertainties, oil prices are kept stable within a defined range.
According to EMKAY, Brent crude is uplifting between USD 70 and USD 75 per barrel for more than three months, with a slight sign of continuous breakout.
“The wider range which was a forecast in the last few monthly updates, the US $ 75-US $ 80, the US $ 70-US is modified in $ 70-75 per barrel based on the supply,” it said.
EMKAY said that while many factors, including OPEC+ Output restrictions and geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and Middle East could increase prices, these incidents failed to break oil from their trading range. While the output cuts cut the price of support from falling further, they did not push them too much. Additionally, speculation on Russia does not affect speculation prices around further further restrictions.
OPEC+ policy and American energy strategy affects oil prices
Emkay said that OPEC+ has decided to gradually cut its production gradually, with a planned return of 2.20 million barrels per day from April 2025. This step can introduce prejudice below a small-middle-term period in oil prices as more supply enters the market.
Meanwhile, America is trying for energy self -sufficiency, a policy goal that has achieved further traction under the current administration. Emkay noticed that the focus has been on ensuring cheap energy for the public, expecting oil prices to be tested. While due to more depreciation capacity in US dollars federal Reserve Rate cuts can contribute to rising oil prices, EMKAY said that supply-Mang does not necessarily support a long rally.
China is expected to continue the pressure on oil prices, raising electric vehicles, growing electric vehicles, and in collaboration projections, inspired by weak demand, dull economic growth and low consumer expenses. However, EMKAY warned that any detail of restrictions or military conflicts related to Iran – either by the US or Israel – can drive more oil prices. Given these dynamics, EMKAY amended its previous oil price forecast of USD 75 per barrel, which is in a new range of USD 70 to USD 75 per barrel.
Another brokerage
Last week, JM Financial Institutional Securities estimated that Brent crude would stabilize around the current levels. Brokerage repeated its priority for upstream oil companies such as ONGC and Oil India Over Oil Marketing Companies (OMC), despite their better evaluation, maintained a cautious approach. JM Financial insisted that while OMC Stocks are trading near its historical value-to-book price average-an altruistic 1–1.1 times firm is uncertain about risk-inam balance in the region.
Overall, Emkay and JM Financial states that oil prices will remain within a stable range, with negative risk due to supply and weak global demand. While short-term fluctuations are possible due to geopolitical development, long-term trajectory seems to be forced by structural supply-mang factors.
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